Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
